Long and Short-Run Relationship Analysis of Monetary Policy On Economic Growth in Morocco: An ARDL Model Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.56294/sctconf20251313Keywords:
Monetary policy, economic growth, Covid-19, ARDL, Granger causality, MoroccoAbstract
Introduction: This study examines the relationship between Morocco's monetary policies from 1991 to 2022 and its economic progress. The analysis examines both short- and long-term dynamics using an AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, taking into account the economic disturbances brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: The research employs the ARDL model and the Granger causality test to assess the causal relationships and the influence of key monetary policy instruments on economic performance. The analysis leverages a robust dataset spanning three decades to ensure the validity and reliability of the results.
Results: The findings demonstrate a significant impact of monetary policy measures on Morocco’s economic activity, both in the short term and the long term. The Granger causality test reveals a bidirectional relationship between the money supply and GDP, highlighting the mutual influence between these variables. Additionally, the analysis underscores the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 crisis, shedding light on vulnerabilities and areas requiring policy intervention.
Conclusions: This research contributes to the existing body of literature by providing an in-depth analysis of the interaction between monetary policy and economic growth in Morocco. Moreover, it offers timely insights into the implications of external shocks, such as the COVID-19 crisis, thereby equipping policymakers with actionable evidence to formulate resilient economic strategies.
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