Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Behavior and Short- and Long-Term Returns among Moroccan Investors: A Behavioral Finance Approach

Authors

  • EL GHMARI Omar Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University Fez, Morocco Author
  • EL GHMARI Imad Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences -Souissi, Mohamed V University, Rabat, Morocco. Author
  • TRID Sabah Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University Fez, Morocco Author
  • M’HAMDI Mohamed Faculty of Legal, Economic and Social Sciences Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University Fez, Morocco Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.56294/sctconf20241016

Keywords:

Rationality, Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Biases, Profitability

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) theory has been vigorously challenged for its inability to explain certain anomalies, stimulating the development of behavioral finance. This discipline, emerging over the past thirty years, provides a new perspective on the analysis of financial markets, highlighting the behavioral biases of investors. Faced with this issue, our study aims to evaluate the impact of behavioral biases on Moroccan financial markets by testing the hypothesis that these biases influence investment decisions and short- and long-term performance. Thus, we seek to understand how the behaviors of Moroccan investors, influenced by psychological biases, can affect financial returns in a context where the efficient market hypothesis is being questioned

References

1. AIT DANI S., RADI B. La controverse sur l’efficience des marchés financiers et l’émergence du paradigme comportemental. Moroccan Journal of Business Studies. 2017;1(1):149-176. https://www.emaa.ma/mjbs/articles/pdfs/vol1issue1/9%20V1N1%20MJBS%20149-176.pdf

2. Akerlof G., Shiller R. Les Esprits animaux. Comment les forces psychologiques mènent la finance et l’économie. Paris: Flammario; 2013. https://www.amazon.fr/esprits-animaux-Comment-psychologiques-l%C3%A9conomie/dp/2081289431

3. Allais M. Le Comportement de l’Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l’Ecole Americaine. Econometrica. 1953;21(4):503–546. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907921

4. Barber B. M., Odean T. Boys Will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2001;116(1):261-292.

5. Barber B. M., Odean T. All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors Graduate. The Review of Financial Studies. 2008;21(2):785-818.

6. Barberis N., Thaler R. H. A Survey of Behavioral Finance. SSRN ElectroneSearch. 2002;15(1):55-72. http://search.proquest.com/openview/504a51ea3f7b233cecb020a9b91eb040/1?pqorigsite=gscholar&cbl=54566

7. De Long J. B., Shleifer A., Summers L. H., Waldmann R. J. Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets. Journal of Political Economy. 1990;98(4):703–738.

8. DROZDA-SENKOWSKA E. La rationalité des inférences : quelques remarques sur la pertinence de ce concept dans les analyses psychosociales. Les Cahiers Internationaux de Psychologie Sociale. 1995;9-26.

9. Durand R., Sanghani J. An Intimate Portrait of the Individual Investor. Journal of Behavioral Finance. 2008;9(44):193-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15427560802341020

10. Fama E. Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance. 1998;49(3):283-306. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.15108

11. Fama E. F. The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices. The Journal of Business. 1965;38(1):34–105.

12. Fama E. F. Efficient Capital Markets: II. The Journal of Finance. 1991;46:1575-1617. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x

13. FRENCH K. Stock returns and the weekend effect. Journal of Financial Economics. 1980;8(1980):55-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(80)90021-5

14. Friedman M. Essays in positive economics. University of Chicago Press Chicago. 1953;334p.

15. GERVAIS S., ODEAN T. Learning to be overconfident. Review of Financial Studies. 2001;14:1–27.

16. Grinblatt M., Keloharju M. What Makes Investors Trade? The Journal of Finance. 2001;56(2):589-616. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00338

17. Hui B., Li P. Does Investor Sentiment Predict Stock Returns? The Evidence from Chinese Stock Market. J Syst Sci Complex. 2014;27:130-143. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/qvqqzs

18. Kahneman D., Riepe M. W. Aspects of Investor Psychology. The Journal of Portfolio Management. 1998;24(4):52-65. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1998.409643

19. Kartika N., Iramani R. Pengaruh Overconfidence, Experience, Emotion terhadap Risk Perception dan Risk Attitude pada Investor Pasar Modal di Surabaya. Journal of Business and Banking. 2013;3(2):177-188. https://doi.org/10.14414/jbb.v3i2.235

20. Lucey B. M. The Role of Feeling in Investor DecisionMaking. Journal of Economic Surveys. 2005;19(2):212-237. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00245.x

21. Natapura C. Analisis Perilaku Investor Institusional dengan Pendekatan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). 2009;16:180-187. http://journal.ui.ac.id/index.php/jbb/article/viewFile/620/605

22. OSBORNE M. Periodic Structure in the Brownian Motion of Stock Prices. Operations Research. 1962;10:345–379.

23. Qawi R. B. Behavioral Finance: Is Investor Psyche Driving Market Performance? The IUP Journal of Behavioral Finance. 2010;VII(4):7-20. http://search.proquest.com/openview/f6e118b15e4cd94d94d69a171ec73b88/1?pqorigsite=gscholar&cbl=54444

24. RAHAOUI R. L’efficience informationnelle du marché financier Marocain : L’impact d’un profit warning sur les cours boursiers. Mémoire Online. 2007. http://www.memoireonline.com/02/09/1969/m_Lefficience-informationnelle-du-marchefinancier-Marocain-Limpact-dun-profit-warning-sur-les-cou10.html

25. ROZEFF M.S., KINNEY W.R. Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Economics. 1976;3:379–402.

26. SAID AIT DANI, BOUCHRA RADI. La controverse sur l’efficience des marchés financiers et l’émergence du paradigme comportemental. Moroccan journal of business studies. 2007;Vol1 Issue°1

27. Shefrin H., Statman M. The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence. The Journal of Finance. 1985;40(3):777–790. https://doi.org/10.2307/2327802

28. Shiller R. J. Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? American Economic Review. 1981;71:421–498. https://doi.org/10.3386/w0456.

29. Shiller R. J. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system. Handbook of Macroeconomics. 1999;1:1305-1340. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10033-8.

30. Shleifer A. Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance. Oxford: Oxford Academic; 2000. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198292279.001.0001

31. Simon H. A. Making Management Decisions: The Role of Intuition and Emotion. Academy of Management Executive. 1987;1:57-64. https://doi.org/10.5465/AME.1987.4275905

32. Takeda K., Takemura T., Kozu T. Investment Literacy and Individual Investor Biases: Survey Evidence in the Japanese Stock Market. Rev Socionetwork Strat. 2013;7:31-42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12626-012-0031-z

33. Thaler R. Anomalies: Saving, Fungibility, and Mental Accounts. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1990;4(1):193-205. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.4.1.193

34. Thaler R. Quasi-rational economics. Russell Sage Foundation. 1994;390p.

35. THAMI KABBAJ. Investir sans criser, bourse : saisir les opportunités. Éditions d’Organisation. pp.21-23.

36. TRID S., EL GHMARI O., LAREJ I. La finance comportementale vers une meilleure compréhension des marchés financiers. International Journal of Economic Studies and Management (IJESM). 2021;1(3):279-294. https://doi.org/10.52502/ijesm.v1i3.200

37. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science. 1974;185(4157):1124-1131. https://DOI:10.1126/science.185.4157.112

38. VENEZIA I., SHAPIRA Z. On the behavioral differences between professional and amateur investors after the weekend. Journal of Banking & Finance. 2007;31:1417–1426.

39. Walliser B. Equilibres et anticipations. Revue Economique. 1982;33(4):594-638. https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408673

40. WALLISER B. Equilibres et anticipations. Revue Economique. 1982;Vol. 33, No. 4:594-638.

41. Khouibiri N., All "How Can Cloud BI Contribute to the Development of the Economy of SMEs? Morocco as Model", Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems,Volume 837 LNNS, Pages 149 – 159, 2024, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-48465-0_20

42. Folorunso S.O., All "Prediction of Student’s Academic Performance Using Learning Analytics", Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems,Volume 837 LNNS, Pages 314 – 325,2024, DOI:10.1007/978-3-031-48465-0_41

43. Adeniyi A.E., All "Comparative Study for Predicting Melanoma Skin Cancer Using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Classification Algorithms", Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, Volume 837 LNNS, Pages 326 – 338, 2024, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-48465-0_42

44. Awotunde J.B., All "An Enhanced Internet of Medical Things Data Communication Based on Blockchain and Cryptography for Smart Healthcare Applications", Lecture Notes in Networks and SystemsVolume, 837 LNNS, Pages 305 – 313,2024, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-48465-0_40

45. Wulandari D. A., Iramani R. Studi Experienced Regret, Risk Tolerance, Overconfidence dan Risk Perception pada Pengambilan Keputusan Investasi Dosen Ekonomi. Journal of Business and Banking. 2014;4(1):55-66. Retrieved from https://journal.perbanas.ac.id/index.php/jbb/article/viewFile/293/231

46. Yannick C. Guide pratique de la finance comportementale. Gualino éditeur, collection Côté finances Lextenso éditions. 2015;168p.

47. Yanti M. Determinan Price Earning Ratio dan Stock Return (Studi pada Sahamsaham Syariah di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Jawa Timur. 2012;10(2):273-290. https://jurnaljam.ub.ac.id/index.php/jam/article/view/419/459

48. Yuliani, Isnurhadi, Ferry Jie. Risk perception and psychological behavior of investors in emerging market: Indonesian Stock Exchange. Investment Management and Financial Innovations (open-access). 2017;14(2-2):347-358. https://doi:10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.0

Downloads

Published

2024-01-01

How to Cite

1.
EL GHMARI O, EL GHMARI I, TRID S, M’HAMDI M. Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Behavior and Short- and Long-Term Returns among Moroccan Investors: A Behavioral Finance Approach. Salud, Ciencia y Tecnología - Serie de Conferencias [Internet]. 2024 Jan. 1 [cited 2024 Nov. 21];3:1016. Available from: https://conferencias.ageditor.ar/index.php/sctconf/article/view/805